Round 2 - TKO

Game 2 was NOT classic but who needs 18 heart attacks in one season right?

My Red Sox are 1 win away from a 3 game sweep of the New York yankees... and I have to say that I don't feel all that good about our chances in the finale. WHAT?! The obvious things can get overstated sometimes but here they are:

1. Dice-K versus WHO? Uh, Chase Wright.... who won his first major league start thanks not to his talent but due to the 6 run second inning his offense gave him to work with. Dice-K is 1-2 but with absolutely horrible run support (1 run total in last two starts) and pretty dominating stuff. Take away the 4th inning against the Blue Jays earlier this week and he's running away with Rookie of the Year... in April.

2. Red Sox offense: it has been surprisingly consistent and more like the offense that we became used to the past few years.

3. yankee pitching: the weak point by far this series as the offense has been almost scary although a little lacking in the clutch... ok, REALLY lacking.

So why the pessimism?

Well - this is still the Red Sox who have NEVER done well when 1 win away from anything significant (sans 2004 WS). I won't waste your time detailing that one - if you're reading this you probably already know.

Second, the yanks have yet to have one of those "scored more runs than they got hits" sort of games where one of our pitchers walks the ballpark and gives up only hits with men in scoring position. I expect to see that tonight.

Third, everything in this series as far as pitching is concerned has gone against the expectations. None of the Red Sox starters have looked good at all. The yanks have broken even in this department and been extraordinarily poor in the bullpen - an expected strength in NY and a weakness in Beantown. I expect a strong NY bullpen (they'll be needed) tonight, ridiculously good pitching from Wright along with the occasional dose of Ruthian luck. Matsuzaka will have his first implosion of the year, be yakked about and cursed all week long heading into yankee Stadium and everyone will wonder why anyone would pay over $100 million for this guy.

Fourth and finally - the Red Sox's ability to leave runners stranded on base inning after horrid inning will finally come back to haunt them. They really should have blown out these guys in the first two games, but with poor hitting numbers with men in scoring position we've barely eeked them out. I see LOTS of Red Sox base runners tonight (I'm guessing an average of close to 2 per inning), but AGAIN no significant run support for Matsuzaka.

Predictions:

1. Matsuzaka looks very rookie-like and gets shelled for at least 5 runs and a combined 4 BB/HBP. Pitches barely into the 6th inning.
2. Wright pitches with the luck of the Irish and escapes MANY jams through 4.2 innings of shaky baseball. Gives up only 3 ER, walks 4, strikes out Manny and Papi at least once each, and leaves with the lead
2a. The BoSox promptly ground into a double play in a key situation versus a reliever.
3. Somebody will make team or league history tonight - either something weird (like consecutive errors or a cycle) or Axel-Rod with his homer/RBI streak in April.
4. Somebody on each team WILL hit a huge homer (Grand Slam/3R or just plain clutch) - the second will be by a yankee and will win the game in the top of the 8th or 9th.
5. Somebody on the field will commit an error allowing at least 2 yankee runs to score.
6. Somebody OTHER than Axel-Rod will have a HUGE day at the plate... I'm guessing Jason Giambi.


NYy 8 (on 7 hits) Boston 7 (on 13 hits)

Pardon the pessimism - but since I am writing this mostly for my own benefit, I don't expect a lot of backlash if I'm dead wrong. But if you've been privy to this rivalry over the years, you know exactly what kind of game I'm talking about...

GO Sox!!!